Betting Updates: Trump is the underdog again

Last week, for the first time, Kamala Harris pulled ahead of Donald Trump in the betting average:

The bettors’ forecast aligns with polls, giving Harris a narrow lead.

Harris is doing better than bettors expected, I think, for two reasons. The first is that the Democratic party coalesced around Harris much faster than expected — there was no long, protracted convention fight.

Secondly, the Harris campaign has had a simple strategy, similar to pre-debate Biden’s: Don’t let Harris do interviews. So far, that strategy has been smart.

Thinking back to the 2020 election, it’s easy to forget that Harris was once the #1 favorite to be the Dem nominee (Harris is in dark red below.)

But her lead completely evaporated as voters saw more of her. I’ve been going through clips of her past speeches, and two things stand out: 1) she took the most far-left positions she could, to win the primary, and 2) she has many cringe-inducing moments.

That was a couple of years ago. I had forgotten about those things. A major question about this election will be whether the Trump campaign and its allies have the means to get Harris’s 2020 gaffes out in front of voters.

Democrats are now hoping to run out the clock: The election is in just 81 days, and it’s conceivable that Harris can skate through without reminding voters why they haven’t liked her in the past.

So when Harris holds rallies, unlike the ad-libbing Trump, she sticks to a carefully prepared script that is fundamentally the same every time, and which has consultant-testing wording in every line.

Her strategy seems to be working. Here’s the state map:

And here’s what the map looked like around Trump’s peak this summer:

Bettors were indifferent on the Walz-vs-Shapiro VP pick

Bettors had Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro as a strong favorite until Saturday. On Sunday, Harris met with her 3 short-list candidates and decided she had the most chemistry with Walz.

Since Harris herself likely didn’t know who she’d pick, it’s hard to fault bettors too much for not calling it earlier. There are signs – such as the fact that she announced her VP pick in Philadelphia – that she had been leaning towards Shapiro, but switched near the last minute.

Harris’s odds were flat immediately before and after the Walz pick became public around 9 am on August 6, although her odds rose in the days afterward:

However, state odds were not flat: Harris’s odds in Pennsylvania fell about 5 points, as bettors had been counting on her picking Pennsylvania’s popular governor Josh Shapiro.

But Harris gained more than 10 points in Michigan, probably because bettors think the relatively-numerous pro-palestine supporters there will find Walz more tolerable. Harris also gained a few points in Wisconsin.

All those changes resulted in no immediate change to Harris’s overall changes, probably because Pennsylvania has the most votes, and is the closest.

Looking ahead: All eyes on the debate

The next event that could shake things up will be the debate that both candidates have agreed to, hosted by ABC News on September 10. I think it’s very unclear which way that debate will go. Trump’s big liability will be coming across as a bully, while Harris has to worry about her tendency to give flowery nonsense answers in live settings.

It’ll be an interesting race!

Congress: Dems now favored for the House, Republicans maintain Senate lead thanks to Montana

As always, you can check ElectionBettingOdds.com for the latest odds.