Bettors say both parties should switch horses

Neither party is likely to, but bettors see a possibility of Biden dropping out

What’s new in the betting odds this November?

Democrats would be wise not to nominate Biden

Let’s start with the electability pages. This shows the chance of winning the general election IF NOMINATED:

As you can see, bettors say that Democrats should absolutely switch horses, even at this late stage.

Furthermore, they’ve been saying so consistently. Since August, bettors have said that Newsom is far more electable than Biden (or Harris) if nominated:

Odds hint that Trump is very slightly favored if it's a Trump-Biden match, as we can see from the Republican side of things:

Republicans would be wise not to nominate Trump

Here are the same odds for Republicans — again, their chance of becoming President IF NOMINATED BY THEIR PARTY:

It has to be noted that the DeSantis electability odds are fickle, due to his low primary chances. Right now, bettors favor him over Trump, but not usually:

That is in line with general election polling, as well.

We can also see that Trump’s electability is now slightly higher than Biden’s. While bettors don’t bet specifically on a Biden-Trump matchup, we can infer from that that they’d give Trump a slight edge, if they were to bet on that.

Neither party is likely to take bettors’ advice; Biden is comparatively likely to

Here are the straight odds on winning the nominations. We can see both Biden and Trump are strong favorites.

Since I have not heard much chatter about Newsom unilaterally entering the race so late in the election cycle, I believe that his decent odds mostly depend on Biden dropping out — as plenty of Democratic politicos have hinted he should do.

Bettors say that would be the right move for Democrats. They also don’t think Newsom would have much trouble wrapping up the nomination, and then the general election, in such a scenario.

On the Republican side, it’s hard to imagine Trump dropping out — I’ve heard from reliable sources that he will run from jail if he has to. So I think the Haley/DeSantis odds depend on a hail-Mary Iowa/NH win that completely resets the tone of the whole nomination contest.

Unlikely, but possible!

Anti-Trump Republicans should hope that either DeSantis or Haley (more likely, DeSantis, at this point) drop out early to consolidate the field.

Pro-Trump Republicans can mostly lean back, with an ~80% chance of winning the nomination.

Biggest picture: Coin toss!

Overall, Democrats remain very slight favorites to hold the Presidency in 2024, but the gap is narrowing:

It’s also interesting to see a 1% chance of an independent candidate (RFK Jr. or Manchin?) which for once, I think is not illusory.

Argentina election (final round) this Sunday!

Most of us are focused on the US election, but there’s also a very interesting election for President of Argentina this Sunday.

Radical libertarian Javier Milei is a NARROW favorite. He'd be the first self-described "anarcho-capitalist" head of state in world history.

He also wants Argentina to switch to using US dollars, to end their brutal 100% inflation. It’d certainly be interesting to see him as President.

Trust the odds

A reminder that the odds have a great track record, going back to 2016; additionally, multiple millions have been bet on all the above-cited stats (except for Argentina, on which half a million has been bet.)