Race tightens, now nearly a coin-toss

Democrats' quick rally around Kamala Harris has put her in a good spot

Here are some quick updates on what the betting odds tell us about the upcoming election:

1- The race is tightening

I think the debates will be fascinating, and that the winner will be whomever can look like a calm semi-Presidential adult, and avoid musing about whether Harris is “really black” or whether she “slept her way to the top.” And to avoid making shrill allegations about how Trump will “end democracy” and how Trump called Nazis “very fine people” (he didn’t.)

Trump can win if focuses on Harris’s track record overseeing unprecedented chaos at the border, high inflation, and her views like wanting to ban fracking in 2020, among many others. And Harris has plenty of real Trump flaws to hit him on.

It’s going to be close!

2- Harris’s electability is on the higher end of what bettors previously expected

ElectionBettingOdds.com has a page showing the chance of winning the Presidency IF a candidate is nominated. Below is the graph for that, zoomed in on Harris’s blue line:

Harris’s odds of winning if nominated are in blue, Newsom’s in orange, and Biden’s in red (ignore the Biden spike after his dropout; that is nonsense data due to his nomination chances being ~0%.)

In general, the betting markets thought she’d have a 38% - 48% chance of winning, if nominated. Currently, bettors think she has a 48% chance of winning if nominated.

I think the biggest reason for that shift is that Democrats coalesced very quickly. Harris didn’t have to re-litigate her often-extreme positions that led her to being labelled the most left-wing senator in 2019. She didn’t have to field attacks from other Democrats or the media. Instead, it was a perfectly smooth path, with virtually no criticism from either within the party, or from legacy media outlets.

Which, again, is a testament to the coordination abilities of top democrats. They may not be known for picking candidates in the most democratic way, as candidates for both 2016 and 2024 were essentially picked by party power-brokers, but they do seem coordinated and effective.

3- Betting markets say Harris’s VP will probably be Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro

I don’t know much about Shapiro, but he does have a high approval rating in Pennsylvania (somewhere between 54% and 61%) and is considered competent and not radical, which could help offset Harris’s negatives.

There are some concerns that he’ll offend some Democrats due to his strident support of Israel.

I think he’d be Harris’s best pick from an electoral standpoint, because of the state map:

4- The “blue wall” is up for grabs

The three southern/western “swing states” (NV/AZ/GA) definitely have a lean, per the bettors, with Trump favored with a 60%+ chance in each.

However, the old “blue wall” states of WI/MI/PA are all up for grabs, and are coin-tosses. Trump needs to win all of the southern/western swing states plus ONE of those to win, which is currently the modal (single most likely) outcome:

However, because Pennsylvania has the most votes of those three, if Trump wins just Pennsylvania, he can then win with JUST Georgia, or JUST Nevada and Arizona. I listed the various combinations in more detail here.

That’s why Nate Silver estimates (link; paywalled) that Pennsylvania has a 34% chance of tipping the election. The next most likely state to tip things is Wisconsin at 14%.

5- Limited impact on Congressional outcomes

I find it surprising that Congressional control odds have moved little, despite the big shift in Presidential odds. The House:

The Senate: