Trump and Harris are Tied: The Dead Heat of Summer

As I write this, the candidates are in a dead heat on ElectionBettingOdds.com:

During the Democratic convention, Harris gave up her narrow lead, and for the 10 days since then, the candidates have been effectively tied.

In the electoral college, it looks like this:

But don’t be fooled by Trump’s large electoral college lead on the map; he leads in many states by the narrowest of margins. PA has a 50.5% chance of going for Trump. That means that, if the election were held 200 times, Trump would win 101 of those times. Not an impressive lead.

Nevada is also at 50.5%.

Arizona is at 56.5%, Georgia at 58%, and North Carolina at 60.5%.

Why is the race so steady? We may have hit the point where no news can really break through the views people already have of both candidates. The next such event will probably be the debate on September 10. Not far away?

Different betting sites slightly disagree with each other

Hovering over the candidate headshots, we see that PredictIt (which has American traders limited to just $850 each) has Harris in the lead. Crypto-based Polymarket gives Trump a slight edge, and the UK-based sites have Trump in the lead by a couple points.

This is why electionbettingodds.com takes the average!

Just like averages of polls have proven to be more reliable than any one poll, I have little doubt that averages of betting markets are more accurate than any one market.

Congressional odds unchanged

Democrats remain favored to take the House, and Republicans to take the Senate

We’ll see if anything more exciting happens after Labor Day!